ESPN’s FPI Rankings Stir Controversy: SEC Bias and Clemson’s Disrespect
On June 3, 2025, ESPN released its initial Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the 2025 college football season, and the results have sparked heated debate among fans and analysts alike. The FPI, a predictive model that simulates a team’s performance based on 20,000 game simulations, is designed to forecast future success rather than rank teams solely on talent or past performance. However, this year’s preseason rankings have raised eyebrows, particularly for their perceived bias toward the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and the seemingly egregious placement of Clemson at No. 11—a ranking many argue fails to reflect the Tigers’ true standing in college football. As we dissect the FPI, it’s clear that ESPN’s model heavily favors the SEC while undervaluing teams from other conferences, raising questions about whether these rankings are setting the stage for an SEC-dominated College Football Playoff (CFP).
The SEC’s Dominance in the FPI: A Step Too Far?
The 2025 FPI rankings place an astonishing 13 SEC teams in the top 25, including the top three spots—Texas at No. 1, Georgia at No. 2, and Alabama at No. 3—and 11 of the top 18. This overwhelming representation stands in stark contrast to other Power 4 conferences, with the Big Ten securing six spots, the ACC just three, and the Big 12 a mere two. Texas, with an 83.9% chance of making the CFP and a 34.1% chance of winning the SEC, leads the pack, followed closely by Georgia (26.9% SEC title odds) and Alabama (17.2%). Other SEC teams like Auburn (No. 14), Oklahoma (No. 16), LSU (No. 12), and even Arkansas and Missouri (both ranked) further inflate the conference’s presence.
While the SEC’s strength is undeniable, the sheer volume of its teams in the top 25—over half the list—feels like an overreach. For comparison, the Big Ten, which boasts powerhouses like Ohio State (No. 4), Penn State (No. 5), and Oregon (No. 9), has fewer than half the top-25 representation of the SEC. The ACC, home to Clemson and Miami, and the Big 12, with teams like Kansas State and Arizona State, are woefully underrepresented. Posts on X reflect the sentiment of many fans, with one user calling the FPI “an absolute joke” for ranking “crappy” SEC teams like Alabama and Tennessee above Clemson. This disparity suggests that ESPN’s model may be overweighting SEC schedules or historical performance, potentially at the expense of teams from other conferences that have comparable or superior resumes.
Clemson’s No. 11 Ranking: An Outrage?
Perhaps the most glaring point of contention is Clemson’s placement at No. 11, a ranking that feels like a slap in the face to a program coming off an ACC championship and a CFP appearance in 2024. The Tigers return an elite quarterback in Cade Klubnik, who threw for 3,639 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only six interceptions last season, and boast what many analysts, including ESPN’s Mark Schlabach, consider the best defensive line in the FBS, led by Peter Woods and T.J. Parker. Clemson also has a high share of returning production (81%, second only to Illinois and Arizona State) and made a significant offseason move by hiring former Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen to bolster an already stout defense.
Yet, the FPI places Clemson below not only the SEC’s top trio but also teams like Tennessee (No. 10), which lost its starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava to the transfer portal, and Auburn (No. 14), a team that went 1-3 in one-score games last season and ranked 125th in turnover luck. Schlabach himself argued that Clemson could be considered one of the top two teams in the FBS alongside Penn State, making their No. 11 ranking baffling. Social media echoed this frustration, with one X user pointing out that Clemson and Arizona State have nearly identical returning starter profiles, yet the Sun Devils are ranked at No. 24—13 spots lower. Another called out ESPN’s “SEC homerism” for placing teams like Alabama and Tennessee above the Tigers.
Clemson’s ranking becomes even more perplexing when compared to other preseason polls. In ESPN’s own Way-Too-Early Top 25, released on May 8, 2025, Clemson was ranked No. 2, trailing only Penn State. This discrepancy between ESPN’s human-voted rankings and the FPI suggests that the model may undervalue factors like Clemson’s returning production, coaching stability under Dabo Swinney, and their favorable ACC schedule, which avoids many of the conference’s top contenders. The FPI’s reliance on simulations that heavily weigh strength of schedule could explain this, as Clemson’s Week 1 matchup against LSU is one of their toughest tests, but it doesn’t justify placing them below teams with less proven talent or more significant roster turnover.
Disparity with Other Preseason Rankings
The gap between the FPI and other preseason rankings extends beyond Clemson. ESPN’s SP+ rankings, updated on May 22, 2025, offer a different perspective, with Alabama, Georgia, and Texas in the top five but Clemson at No. 8, Miami at No. 12, and SMU at No. 20—giving the ACC a stronger presence than the FPI’s three-team showing. The SP+ model, which factors in returning production, recruiting, and recent performance, seems to align more closely with qualitative assessments of team strength. For instance, SP+ projects Clemson with a 37% chance of going 11-1 or better, second only to Notre Dame (52%) among non-SEC/Big Ten teams.
Other outlets, like CBS Sports’ rankings for the 2025-26 season, don’t provide specific team placements but emphasize a broader distribution of top teams across conferences, with less SEC dominance. The Coaches and AP polls, while not yet released for 2025, historically balance conference representation more evenly than the FPI, as seen in their 2024 preseason rankings where the SEC and Big Ten didn’t monopolize the top spots to this degree. The FPI’s heavy SEC tilt—13 teams compared to the Big Ten’s six and the ACC’s three—stands out as an outlier, suggesting a methodology that may overemphasize SEC schedules or historical success.
Is ESPN Positioning the SEC for the CFP?
The FPI’s SEC-heavy rankings fuel speculation that ESPN, which has significant broadcasting ties to the SEC, is positioning the conference for CFP favoritism. With 13 SEC teams in the top 25, the model inherently boosts the conference’s chances of securing multiple CFP bids in the 12-team playoff format. Texas, Georgia, and Alabama alone account for a combined 77.2% chance of winning the SEC title, and the FPI gives the Longhorns an 8.9% chance of going undefeated—higher than any other team despite their brutal SEC schedule. This setup could create a narrative where SEC teams are seen as “battle-tested” due to their tough schedules, even if they lose games, while teams like Clemson, who face a lighter ACC slate, are penalized for perceived weaker competition.
The FPI’s methodology, which adjusts for strength of schedule and simulates outcomes based on analytics, may inadvertently amplify this bias. SEC teams face grueling intraconference matchups, which the model rewards, but it seems to undervalue the potential for teams like Clemson to dominate a less competitive conference and enter the CFP with a strong record. X users have called out this perceived bias, with one noting that the FPI’s rankings are “uniquely strange” for teams like Clemson, which some analysts rank as high as No. 1. The model’s emphasis on predictive metrics over current team strength could be skewing perceptions, setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy where SEC teams are given more CFP consideration regardless of on-field results.
The Bigger Picture: A Call for Balance
While the FPI is a valuable tool for projecting team performance, its 2025 preseason rankings expose a troubling disparity in how conferences are evaluated. The SEC’s dominance is unquestionable, but placing 13 teams in the top 25—many of whom, like Auburn, Arkansas, and Missouri, have significant question marks—feels like an overcorrection. Clemson’s No. 11 ranking, in particular, is an outrage when stacked against their elite returning talent, coaching upgrades, and recent success. Compared to other preseason rankings like SP+ or ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25, the FPI undervalues the ACC and Big 12 while inflating the SEC’s standing, potentially shaping a narrative that favors one conference over others in the CFP conversation.
As the 2025 season approaches, fans and analysts will be watching closely to see if the FPI’s predictions hold water or if teams like Clemson prove the model wrong by dominating on the field. For now, the rankings serve as a lightning rod for debate, highlighting the challenges of balancing analytics with real-world performance in a sport as unpredictable as college football. If ESPN’s FPI is indeed setting the stage for an SEC-heavy CFP, it’s up to teams like Clemson to rewrite the script come August.
