CLEMSON, S.C. — On paper, it looks daunting.
No. 4 Miami rolls into Death Valley Saturday night undefeated at 4-0, scoring points in bunches, suffocating opponents defensively and carrying the look of a legitimate national championship contender.
Clemson?
The Tigers are 3-1, still trying to erase the memory of that disastrous season opener at LSU and entering Saturday as one of the biggest home underdogs of the Dabo Swinney era.
But games aren’t played on paper.
And this one is being played at 7:30 p.m. Saturday night in Clemson’s Memorial Stadium, on ABC, with rain and thunderstorms expected around Death Valley.
The National Weather Service currently projects an 80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and a 70 percent chance of rain Saturday night.
Welcome to chaos.
And if Clemson is going to shock the college football world, chaos might be exactly what the Tigers need.
First, Understand Just How Good Miami Has Been
This is not the same Miami team Clemson fans remember from previous seasons.
The Hurricanes have opened the season 4-0 and have climbed to No. 4 in the AP poll. Clemson and Miami are also the only two ACC teams entering the weekend already 2-0 in conference play.
And Miami’s quarterback isn’t D’Eriq King anymore.
It’s Darian Mensah, the transfer from Duke who arrived in Coral Gables after throwing for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns last season. Through Miami’s first four games this fall, Mensah has thrown for more than 1,200 yards with 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Then there’s sophomore receiver Malachi Toney.
Calling him a dangerous receiver almost undersells it.
Toney enters Death Valley with 34 catches for 564 yards and six touchdowns in only four games, an incredible 141 receiving yards per game. He already owns a 234-yard, three-touchdown performance this season.
Miami can run it, too. The Hurricanes are averaging more than 220 rushing yards per game, giving Mensah the luxury of operating an offense that doesn’t have to become one-dimensional.
So how does Clemson beat them?
There is a path.
It just isn’t a very wide one.
1. Clemson Has to Make Miami Earn Everything
Clemson cannot allow the 60-yard touchdown.
Period.
If Toney gets behind the defense two or three times and Miami starts generating explosive plays, Clemson is probably chasing the game all night.
The Tigers have to make Miami drive the football.
Make it take 10 plays.
Make it take 12.
Make Mensah repeatedly convert third downs on a wet field with 81,000-plus people screaming around him.
That means Clemson’s secondary — Ashton Hampton, Elliot Washington II, Corey Myrick, Jerome Carter III and company — has to continue playing like the group we’ve watched over the last several weeks.
There is reason for optimism there.
After allowing 51 points and 644 yards at LSU, Clemson has allowed an average of only 12.3 points and 282 yards per game over its last three contests. Against Cal, the Tigers held what had been one of the nation’s better passing offenses to only 145 passing yards and allowed just three offensive points.
That’s not hype.
That’s improvement.
Now comes the biggest test imaginable.
2. Don’t Let Malachi Toney Beat You
If Clemson leaves Toney isolated all night, it’s asking for trouble.
Bracket him.
Roll coverage toward him.
Get hands on him when possible.
Change the picture before and after the snap.
And most importantly, Clemson has to tackle him immediately.
Toney’s explosiveness means a harmless-looking six-yard completion can turn into 40 in seconds.
If Miami’s other receivers make spectacular contested plays all night, Clemson may have to live with it. But the Tigers cannot walk off the field afterward knowing Miami’s most dangerous weapon was allowed to dictate the game.
Make somebody else do it.
3. Stop the Run and Turn Mensah Into Just a Quarterback
This sounds strange considering how well Mensah has played, but Clemson needs the game in his hands.
Not because Mensah isn’t excellent.
Because allowing Miami to run the football successfully gives the Hurricanes everything.
Play-action.
Easy first downs.
Manageable third downs.
Control of the clock.
And unlimited options for offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson.
Clemson needs first-down stops.
Get Miami into second-and-8 and third-and-7 instead of second-and-4.
Then let the crowd become part of the defense.
That’s where Jeremiah Alexander, Sammy Brown and Clemson’s defensive front have to produce their biggest performance of the season.
Pressure Mensah — but pressure him intelligently. Don’t recklessly open running lanes. Collapse the pocket and make him operate in traffic.
For four games, almost everything has been comfortable for Miami’s offense.
Clemson’s job is to make Saturday uncomfortable.
4. Clemson Cannot Ask Tait Reynolds to Win This Game By Himself
This may be the biggest offensive key of all.
Tait Reynolds is a talented true freshman.
He’s also a true freshman facing one of the best defenses in college football.
That’s not the night to ask him to drop back 40 times and rescue Clemson.
The Tigers need to build everything around Gideon Davidson.
Davidson has rushed for 100 yards in consecutive games, including a career-high 159 yards and two touchdowns against Cal, capped by a 75-yard touchdown run.
Miami’s run defense has been spectacular — opponents have averaged only about 40 rushing yards per game through four games.
So Clemson cannot simply line up and run straight into a brick wall 30 times.
Chad Morris needs creativity.
Motion.
Misdirection.
Jet action.
Quarterback movement.
Screens.
Quick throws to the perimeter.
Get the ball into space and make Miami defend the entire width of the field.
Those short throws can become Clemson’s extension of the running game.
Then, once Miami’s safeties begin creeping forward?
Take the shot.
Clemson doesn’t need Reynolds throwing for 350 yards.
It needs him protecting the football, converting manageable third downs and hitting two or three explosive throws when Miami gives Clemson the opportunity.
5. Gideon Davidson Has to Become Clemson’s Hammer
There is another reason Davidson matters so much.
Every Clemson first down is another possession Miami doesn’t have.
The best defense against Mensah and Toney might occasionally be keeping them standing on their own sideline.
Clemson’s ideal game isn’t 75 offensive snaps for Miami.
It’s shortening the contest.
Long possessions.
Field position.
Third-down conversions.
Let the clock run.
Turn a game people expect Miami to control into a fourth-quarter fistfight.
Because if this game reaches the final eight minutes and Clemson is within one possession?
Now Miami isn’t playing a 16-point underdog anymore.
They’re playing Clemson.
At night.
In Death Valley.
In the rain.
With the entire stadium believing something might be happening.
That’s a completely different football game.
6. Special Teams Could Decide Everything
In perfect weather, special teams matter.
In a rainstorm, they can decide the game.
Wet footballs mean difficult snaps.
Difficult holds.
Muffed punts.
Bad footing.
Short kicks.
Coverage mistakes.
Field-position swings.
Clemson doesn’t necessarily need a punt-return touchdown or blocked kick to pull the upset.
But the Tigers probably need to steal something.
A short field.
A big return.
A punt downed inside the five.
A Miami missed field goal.
Maybe a loose football in the rain.
Clemson cannot give Miami free possessions. But if the Tigers can manufacture one extra possession of their own, suddenly the mathematics of an upset begin changing.
7. The Weather Can Be Clemson’s Friend
Nobody should pretend rain automatically favors Clemson.
Miami has to play in it.
So does Clemson.
But bad weather can serve as an equalizer because it introduces uncertainty.
The timing of the passing game changes.
Receivers slip.
Defenders slip.
The ball gets harder to secure.
Explosive offenses sometimes become more conservative.
And every possession becomes more valuable.
Clemson has also already experienced more than its share of weather disruption this season. The Tigers’ game against North Carolina included a stadium-record two-hour, 28-minute lightning delay, after Clemson’s previous two games had also experienced weather delays.
If Saturday turns bizarre, Clemson has been there before.
Embrace it.
8. Death Valley Has to Become Death Valley Again
This might be the most important assignment of all — and it belongs to the fans.
Show up.
Show up early.
Stay through the rain.
Get loud when Miami breaks the huddle.
Make Mensah communicate in noise.
Make the Hurricanes burn a timeout.
Create a false start.
Turn third-and-6 into third-and-11.
Clemson is trying to earn its first Top-5 home victory since its previous great championship-era teams, and the program has lost only three home games against ranked opponents since 2015.
There have been plenty of games over the last decade when an opponent walked into Death Valley already wondering how it could survive.
Saturday night Clemson needs that feeling again.
And Clemson’s defense can help create it.
Get a stop on Miami’s opening possession and let 81,000 people erupt.
Force a turnover and let the stadium shake.
Give the crowd a reason to believe early.
Because belief spreads fast inside that stadium.
So, Can Clemson Actually Pull This Off?
Yes, there is a path.
It probably isn’t Clemson winning a 45-42 track meet.
The better blueprint is uglier.
Wet.
Physical.
Frustrating.
Keep Miami’s explosive plays under control.
Make somebody other than Malachi Toney beat you.
Get Miami behind the chains.
Run Davidson.
Protect Reynolds.
Win field position.
Avoid turnovers.
Steal a possession on special teams.
And somehow drag this thing into the fourth quarter.
That’s where Clemson wants Miami.
The Hurricanes arrive with the ranking, the statistics, the Heisman candidates and national championship expectations.
Clemson has something different.
A defense that’s beginning to find itself.
A young running back who’s starting to emerge.
A freshman quarterback who has already won his first two starts.
A stadium that can become one of the loudest places in the sport.
And possibly several hours of October rain.
Maybe Miami really is as good as advertised.
Maybe the Hurricanes walk in and prove every bit of it.
But Saturday night Clemson gets 60 minutes to find out.
And if the Tigers can turn a football game into a street fight in the rain, keep the score close and make Miami feel the pressure of Death Valley deep into the fourth quarter?
Then don’t leave.
Don’t stop yelling.
And don’t stop believing.
Because strange things can happen on a rainy Saturday night in Death Valley.
And Clemson just might have a chance to make October 3rd one of those nights.
