Prediction: High Noon in Death Valley — Pressure, Legends and a Freshman Take Center Stage

CLEMSON, S.C. — There is a little bit of everything packed into Saturday afternoon at Memorial Stadium.

There are two of the most accomplished coaching résumés football has produced standing on opposite sidelines. There is a true freshman quarterback making the first start of his college career. There is a Clemson team still searching for an offensive identity, a North Carolina team arriving undefeated and confident defensively, the return of a massive piece to Clemson’s defensive front, and enough off-field noise surrounding the Tar Heels to fill an entire week of headlines.

Then there is Death Valley itself.

At high noon, in front of a Clemson crowd that has spent two weeks trying to figure out exactly what kind of football team it has, the Tigers open ACC play in a game that feels much bigger than the calendar would normally suggest.

Clemson is 1-1. North Carolina is 2-0. The Tigers have already absorbed a 51-10 loss at LSU and followed it with a 22-7 victory over Georgia Southern that answered some questions defensively while creating several more offensively. North Carolina, meanwhile, has beaten TCU and East Tennessee State and has allowed just 13 points through its first two games. The Tar Heels have been far from perfect, but defensively they have been disciplined, physical and difficult to score against. Dabo Swinney specifically pointed this week to how fundamentally sound Bill Belichick’s team has looked on that side of the football.

And that brings us to the matchup everyone will talk about before the football is ever kicked.

Dabo Swinney versus Bill Belichick.

It is as close to a Hall-of-Fame collision as college football can put on a sideline. Swinney owns two national championships, eight ACC titles and the résumé of the coach who took Clemson from national contender to national champion. Belichick arrives with the résumé of an NFL coaching legend, including six Super Bowl championships as New England’s head coach. Their careers were built in very different football worlds, but Saturday brings those worlds together in Death Valley.

Yet for all the attention the coaches receive, the most important person on Clemson’s sideline Saturday may be a 19-year-old freshman who has never started a college football game.

The Tait Reynolds Era Gets Its First Real Test

Tait Reynolds gets the football.

Not for a series. Not because the game is over. Not because Clemson needs a temporary replacement.

This time, it is his game.

Reynolds will make the first start of his Clemson career after Christopher Vizzina injured his non-throwing elbow against Georgia Southern. Swinney said Vizzina is expected to miss at least the North Carolina game, opening the door for Reynolds after the freshman gave Clemson an undeniable jolt last Saturday. Reynolds completed 16 of 27 passes for 178 yards and added 38 rushing yards after entering against the Eagles. Through his first two college appearances, he has completed 20 of 33 passes and has yet to throw an interception.

The numbers only tell part of the story.

What Reynolds brought against Georgia Southern was movement. Clemson’s offense looked different with him behind center because the defense had to account for another athlete. He could escape the pocket, extend a play, keep the football on the perimeter and make something happen when protection failed. Swinney has talked about Reynolds possessing an “it” factor, and there have already been glimpses of what he means.

Now comes the hard part.

North Carolina knows Reynolds is starting. Belichick and his defensive staff have had an entire week to prepare for him. They can pressure him, disguise coverage, force him to read the field after the snap and find out whether a talented freshman playing on adrenaline can remain patient when the easy play disappears.

That is why Clemson should resist the temptation to protect Reynolds by shrinking the offense into nothing.

There is a difference between simplifying things for a freshman and making the offense predictable. Clemson needs to use what Reynolds does well. Move the pocket. Use RPOs. Give him quarterback-run opportunities. Let him get outside on sprint-outs. Use his legs to force North Carolina’s defensive ends to hesitate instead of simply crashing toward the running backs.

Most importantly, let the kid play.

The Biggest Pressure May Actually Be on Clemson’s Offensive Line

As much attention as Reynolds receives Saturday, the game could ultimately be decided by five players standing directly in front of him.

Clemson’s offensive line has to become better.

Period.

The running game has lacked consistency. Negative plays have put the offense behind the chains, and Clemson has not demonstrated that it can simply line up, move people and run the football when the situation demands it. Against Georgia Southern, Clemson moved the football but repeatedly stalled, leaving Nolan Hauser to kick five field goals. The Tigers were just 4-of-17 on third down and finished too many promising possessions without touchdowns.

That cannot become the formula against North Carolina.

The Tar Heels have enough ability up front to make life miserable for a freshman quarterback if Clemson becomes one-dimensional. Reynolds cannot spend his first career start facing second-and-11 and third-and-9 all afternoon. Clemson must find four and five yards on first down, stay ahead of the chains and give Chad Morris access to the entire playbook.

If there is one area that could determine whether Clemson wins comfortably, wins ugly or finds itself in real trouble, it is the line of scrimmage when Clemson has the football.

The offensive line does not have to suddenly become the 2018 Clemson front. It simply has to become dependable.

Vic Burley Comes Back at Exactly the Right Time

On the other side of the football, Clemson receives a significant reinforcement.

Vic Burley is back.

Swinney reinstated the veteran defensive tackle after his suspension, with Burley becoming available beginning with the North Carolina game. His return gives Clemson another 300-plus-pound body in the interior at a time when defensive-line depth has been tested.

Burley does not have to produce three sacks Saturday to affect this football game.

His value begins with occupying blockers. If Burley can demand a double-team, collapse the interior of the pocket and prevent North Carolina from consistently creating running lanes between the tackles, it changes what defensive coordinator Tom Allen can do around him. It keeps linebackers cleaner. It allows Clemson to rotate its front. It can create opportunities for Will Heldt and Clemson’s edge players to attack from the outside.

Heldt already showed against Georgia Southern what that can look like, producing two sacks and three tackles for loss as Clemson’s defense forced eight three-and-outs.

Clemson needs that defense again Saturday.

North Carolina quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. is experienced enough to punish a defense that allows him to get comfortable, and the Tar Heels have weapons capable of stressing Clemson through the air. But if Clemson can make North Carolina earn the field five and six yards at a time rather than surrendering explosive plays, this begins to look like the kind of game the Tigers want.

Field position. Third downs. Red-zone defense. Patience.

In other words, a defensive fight.

North Carolina Arrives With More Than Football to Manage

The Tar Heels also enter Death Valley carrying distractions that have accumulated quickly.

North Carolina announced this week that defensive coordinator Steve Belichick will resign effective October 27 following the conclusion of a university investigation. General manager Michael Lombardi had already resigned earlier in September. Reuters reported that the university said the investigation identified certain conduct inconsistent with institutional standards but characterized the incidents as isolated rather than systemic.

Then came another issue involving the roster.

Freshman wide receiver Keeyun Chapman was arrested on a misdemeanor concealed-weapons charge and suspended from team activities, while fellow freshman receiver C.J. Sadler was cited following the same traffic stop and is unavailable for the Clemson game.

None of that means North Carolina arrives distracted once the football is kicked off. Belichick has spent an entire career operating amid pressure, scrutiny and noise, and the Tar Heels have had a strong start on the field.

But this will be their first road game of the season.

And their first road game is not just anywhere.

It is Death Valley.

This Feels Like a Game That Has to Be Won the Hard Way

Everything about Saturday points toward patience.

North Carolina has allowed 6.5 points per game. Clemson has scored only 32 points in two games. Reynolds is making his first start. Clemson’s best unit right now appears to be its defense, and North Carolina has increasingly built its identity around defense and discipline. Even the betting market has reflected that expectation, with Clemson sitting around a 3.5-point favorite and the total hovering in the low-to-mid 40s Saturday morning.

Do not expect Clemson to walk onto the field and suddenly look like an offensive machine.

This could be ugly.

There may be punts. There may be drives that go nowhere. There may be moments when Reynolds looks every bit like the freshman that he is. North Carolina will probably create a turnover opportunity somewhere in this game, and Clemson is going to have to avoid allowing one mistake to become two.

But Clemson also has some things working in its favor.

It has the home crowd. It has the more talented defensive front. It gets Burley back. It has a kicker in Hauser who demonstrated last week that Clemson does not need to reach the end zone every possession to come away with points. And perhaps most importantly, it now has a quarterback whose athleticism gives the offense a way to create something when the play around him breaks down.

Reynolds does not need 350 yards.

He may not even need 250.

Clemson needs him to avoid catastrophic mistakes, use his legs, make a handful of throws on third down and give the Tigers two or three drives that finish in touchdowns instead of field goals.

Defensively, Clemson needs to force North Carolina to play the long game. Make Edwards drive 75 yards. Stop the run on first down. Create third-and-long situations. Get Death Valley involved and see how North Carolina responds when communication becomes difficult and the pressure starts building.

Because the longer this game remains close, the more every possession begins to matter.

And that is where the environment could become Clemson’s greatest advantage.

The crowd coming into Memorial Stadium Saturday is not simply excited. It is anxious. Clemson fans have spent the opening two weeks waiting for evidence that this team can begin putting the pieces together. They want to see an offense with some life. They want to see the offensive line respond. They want to see the Clemson defensive front look like Clemson again.

Most of all, they want to leave Death Valley believing this season is finally pointed in the right direction.

Saturday may not provide a masterpiece.

It may provide something Clemson needs more.

A win.

North Carolina makes Reynolds work for everything. Clemson’s offense continues to sputter at times, but the freshman creates several critical plays with his legs and settles down enough in the second half to put together the drive that changes the game. Burley’s return helps Clemson control the interior, the Tigers generate enough pressure on Edwards to prevent North Carolina from finding consistent rhythm, and Hauser again matters in a game where points are difficult to manufacture.

It is physical. It is tense. It stays uncomfortable deep into the fourth quarter.

But when the clock reaches zero, Clemson has done just enough to begin ACC play with the victory everyone inside Death Valley desperately wants.

Clemson Sports News Prediction: Clemson 24, North Carolina 17.