Clemson vs. SMU: ACC Newcomers Test Tigers’ Resurgence in Death Valley
October 17, 2025
With the ACC’s playoff implications hanging in the balance, No. 25 Clemson (3-3, 2-2 ACC) hosts undefeated-in-conference SMU (4-2, 2-0 ACC) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, broadcast live on ACC Network. This matchup marks the Mustangs’ historic debut in Memorial Stadium, capacity 81,500, and serves as a rematch of the 2024 ACC Championship thriller, where the Tigers escaped with a 34-31 overtime victory to secure a berth in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. For Clemson, coming off back-to-back statement wins totaling a 79-20 scoring margin, it’s a chance to solidify their climb back into contention. SMU, riding a nine-game ACC road win streak, aims to extend their conference dominance while navigating their first true road test against a Power Four defense since joining the league.
Oddsmakers list Clemson as 9.5-point favorites (moneyline -340 for Tigers, +265 for Mustangs; over/under 55.5), reflecting the home team’s historical October edge at Death Valley—23-0 all-time in the month. ESPN’s FPI assigns Clemson a 63.3% win probability, while Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics tilt 61% toward the Tigers. Yet, SMU’s frenetic no-huddle offense, averaging a league-high 78.4 plays per game, could push the pace into a high-scoring affair; seven of the Mustangs’ last eight October games as underdogs have trended under the total, contrasting Clemson’s over pattern in six of eight such home spots against unranked opponents.
Clemson’s recent ATS mark stands at 2-4 overall but 2-1 in their last three, while SMU is 1-4 ATS this season, including 1-4 as road underdogs.
Clemson’s Rollercoaster Path: From September Struggles to October SurgeThe Tigers’ 2025 campaign has epitomized inconsistency under Dabo Swinney, starting with a defensive masterclass in a 17-10 upset loss to No. 9 LSU on Aug. 30 (holding the Tigers to 297 total yards but faltering on a late field goal). A narrow 27-16 home win over Troy on Sept. 6 followed, but back-to-back defeats—a 24-21 road heartbreaker to Georgia Tech on Sept. 13 and a shocking 34-21 home collapse to Syracuse on Sept. 20—dropped Clemson to 1-3 (0-2 ACC), their worst start since 2010. The tide turned post-bye with a commanding 38-10 road rout of North Carolina on Oct. 4, where the defense sacked QB Max Johnson five times and forced three turnovers. Last Saturday’s 41-10 evisceration of Boston College in Chestnut Hill—504 total yards, including 298 passing—vaulted Clemson seven spots to No. 39 in SP+ rankings and evened their record.
clemsonwire.usatoday.comOffensively, Clemson ranks 56th nationally at 408.8 yards per game, with a pass-heavy tilt yielding 278.8 aerial yards (26th in FBS) but a middling 130.0 rushing yards (98th, 3.8 YPC).
bleachernation.com Senior QB Cade Klubnik, expected to play fully cleared from an ankle sprain suffered late against BC, has rebounded sharply: 1,530 passing yards on 65.8% completion (11 TDs, 5 INTs) plus 104 rushing yards and two scores on 47 carries. Against BC, he diced defenses for 280 yards (22-of-30, 73.3%), one TD, one INT, and added 48 rushing yards with a score—his best dual-threat showing since the UNC win.
espn.com If Klubnik sits (questionable per Thursday’s ACC-mandated injury report), freshman Christopher Vizzina steps in, having completed 12-of-18 passes for 142 yards as backup.
clemsonwire.usatoday.comTight end Bryant Wesco Jr. leads the ACC with six receiving TDs (80% contested-catch rate), hauling in 28 catches for 412 yards overall. Sophomore RB Adam Randall, stepping into the post-Mafah void, has emerged as the lead back with 389 rushing yards and three TDs on 95 carries (4.1 YPC), including a career-high 112 yards and a score on 22 touches vs. BC. Wideout Antonio Williams adds explosiveness with 18 receptions for 285 yards and two TDs, while freshman WR TJ Moore paces the team with 32 catches for 378 yards.
greenvilleonline.comDefensively, Clemson ranks 31st in SP+ (20.0 rating), allowing 17.2 points per game (top-25 nationally), 105.0 rushing yards (24th), and 217.8 passing (64th).
bleachernation.com The front seven, bolstered by freshman DT Peter Woods (3.5 TFLs, two sacks), pressures at 2.3 sacks per game (25th). Junior LB Barrett Carter anchors with 45 tackles and 3.5 sacks, while DE T.J. Parker (two sacks, eight TFLs) has surged post-slow start (down from 11 sacks in 2024).
thestate.com Freshman safety RJ Mickens leads with three interceptions among 10 forced turnovers (+4 differential, 12th nationally). However, home form remains a red flag: 2-4 at Memorial Stadium since last October, including losses to LSU and Syracuse, snapping a once-vaunted streak.
thestate.com
| Clemson Key Stats (Through 6 Games) | Value | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense (YPG) | 408.8 | 56th |
| Passing Yards (YPG) | 278.8 | 26th |
| Rushing Yards (YPG) | 130.0 | 98th |
| Points Allowed (PPG) | 17.2 | Top-25 |
| Sacks Per Game | 2.3 | 25th |
| Turnovers Forced | 10 | Top-20 |
| Third-Down Defense | 34.8% | 22nd |
SMU’s Pony Express: Explosive but Vulnerable in the ACC SpotlightRhett Lashlee’s Mustangs entered 2025 as preseason No. 16 with carryover buzz from an 8-0 conference mark in 2024, but nonconference road woes—a 24-17 loss at Baylor and a 28-24 defeat to TCU—tempered expectations, dropping them to 4-2. ACC romps followed: 42-13 over East Texas A&M and 31-7 vs. Missouri State, keeping them perfect in league play. Last week’s 34-10 home dismantling of Stanford extended their ACC road streak to nine, with the defense holding the Cardinal to 1-of-12 on third downs.
espn.com ESPN projects SMU at 7.5-4.6 overall, with a 96.6% chance at bowl eligibility but just 3.6% to win the ACC.
dispatch.comThe offense scorches at 43.2 points per game (top-15 nationally), blending a 277.8 passing yards clip (27th) with 127.0 rushing (100th, 4.0 YPC).
bleachernation.com Sophomore QB Kevin Jennings, whom Swinney dubbed the “most dynamic” Clemson has faced this year, has ignited the attack: 247-of-380 for 3,245 yards (23 TDs, 11 INTs) in 2024 carryover form, plus 354 rushing yards and five scores. Vs. Stanford, he posted 247 yards (22-of-30, 73.3%, two TDs, zero INTs) and orchestrated a 17-point fourth-quarter rally reminiscent of last year’s ACC title comeback.
espn.com RB Brashard Smith leads the ground charge with 512 yards (5.2 YPC) and five TDs, while transfer RB Chris Johnson Jr. exploded last week: 96 yards on five carries (including an 87-yard TD) and a 42-yard receiving score on two catches.
thestate.com Miami transfer WR Romello Brinson ranks top-10 in the ACC with 484 receiving yards (80.7 YPG) and three TDs on 28 catches; Jordan Hudson added five grabs for 87 yards vs. Stanford. TE RJ Maryland, back from a 2024 ACL tear, bolsters the red zone with 22 receptions for 285 yards and four scores.
dallasnews.comDefensively, SMU excels against the run (107.3 yards allowed, 27th) and on third downs (ACC-best 32.1% conversion rate allowed), holding foes to 19.4 points per game.
scoresandstats.com Senior DE Cameron Robertson paces with 4.5 sacks, 7.5 TFLs, and two forced fumbles in six games—all career highs. LB Kobe Wilson (52 tackles) and safety Isaiah Nwokobia lead a unit with 10 interceptions (ACC-high) and a stingy 64% red-zone scoring defense (third nationally).
thestate.com Weaknesses abound, though: 315.8 passing yards surrendered per game (135th, second-worst in FBS) and a possession-killing 26:19 average (131st).
espn.com They’ve coughed up seven turnovers in six games, vulnerable to Clemson’s takeaway prowess.
| SMU Key Stats (Through 6 Games) | Value | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense (PPG) | 43.2 | Top-15 |
| Passing Yards (YPG) | 277.8 | 27th |
| Rushing Yards (YPG) | 127.0 | 100th |
| Plays Per Game | 78.4 | ACC-High |
| Points Allowed (PPG) | 19.4 | Top-30 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 315.8 | 135th |
| Third-Down Defense | 32.1% | ACC-1st |
| Time of Possession | 26:19 | 131st |
Pivotal Matchups and Injury Watch
- QB Mobility Clash: Klubnik’s 104 rushing yards meet Jennings’ 354; Clemson’s 3.3 YPC allowed (25th) vs. SMU’s dual-threat tempo could spark a track meet, but the Tigers’ 25th-ranked sack rate (2.3 per game) eyes Jennings’ pocket presence. bleachernation.com
- Pass Attack vs. Secondary: Clemson’s 26th-ranked passing offense (278.8 YPG) targets SMU’s 135th-ranked pass defense; Wesco’s red-zone prowess (six TDs) vs. the Mustangs’ 10 picks.
- Ground Game Grind: Randall’s power (389 yards) tests SMU’s 27th-ranked run D (107.3 allowed), while Smith’s burst (512 yards) probes Clemson’s 24th-ranked front (105.0 allowed). bleachernation.com
- Turnover Edge: Clemson’s +4 differential (12th) vs. SMU’s seven giveaways—projected as a decider in a close tilt.
Injuries loom large: Klubnik is probable but monitored, with Vizzina as the contingency; SMU’s Brinson is fully available after a minor tweak. Buzz from X highlights Clemson’s home vulnerability (“Tigers must protect Death Valley after 3 losses in 4”) and SMU’s road resilience (“Mustangs 9-0 in ACC away games—Jennings magic incoming?”). Recent ACC pods note the Friday doubleheader ripple (Georgia Tech-Duke impacting focus) but peg this as a “must-win for Clemson’s playoff pulse.”
ACCThis ACC showcase blends Clemson’s defensive grit with SMU’s offensive fireworks—expect Death Valley to deliver on its reputation as one of college football’s premier venues.
Key player predictions
2025 ACC Championship outlook
More concise analysis
the stat line for Adam randall vs BC is incorrect PLEASE BE ACCURATE in ALL STATS and only current rostered players
Clemson vs. SMU: Tigers and Mustangs Collide in High-Stakes ACC ShowdownBy Grok Sports Desk | October 17, 2025No. 25 Clemson (3-3, 2-2 ACC) welcomes SMU (4-2, 2-0 ACC) to Memorial Stadium for the Mustangs’ first-ever visit to Death Valley, a pivotal ACC clash set for Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network. This rematch of the 2024 ACC Championship—where Clemson edged SMU 34-31 in overtime to secure a College Football Playoff berth—carries massive implications for the conference race. The Tigers, fresh off a two-game tear outscoring opponents 79-20, aim to reclaim home dominance, while SMU’s nine-game ACC road win streak and high-octane offense pose a formidable challenge. With Clemson as 9.5-point favorites (moneyline -340, over/under 55.5), ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 63.3% win probability, and SP+ projects a 61% edge. SMU’s up-tempo attack (78.4 plays per game, ACC-high) could push the pace, though their 1-4 ATS mark as underdogs contrasts Clemson’s 2-1 ATS in their last three.Clemson: Riding Momentum, Seeking Home RedemptionClemson’s 2025 season has been a tale of resilience. A 17-10 opening loss to No. 9 LSU (297 yards allowed, but a late field goal sealed it) kicked off a rocky September: a 27-16 win over Troy, a 24-21 defeat at Georgia Tech, and a 34-21 home upset by Syracuse dropped them to 1-3 (0-2 ACC). A post-bye 38-10 rout of North Carolina (Oct. 4) and a 41-10 demolition of Boston College (Oct. 11) flipped the script, with 504 total yards against the Eagles marking a season-high. The Tigers’ defense, holding opponents to 17.2 points per game (top-25), has fueled the surge.Offensively, Clemson averages 408.8 yards per game (56th in FBS), with 278.8 passing yards (26th) offsetting a lackluster 130.0 rushing yards (98th, 3.8 YPC). Senior QB Cade Klubnik, probable despite a late-game ankle tweak against BC, has thrown for 1,530 yards (65.8% completion, 11 TDs, 5 INTs) and rushed for 104 yards with two scores. Against BC, he went 22-of-30 for 280 yards, one TD, one INT, and added 48 rushing yards with a 6-yard TD run. Backup QB Christopher Vizzina (12-of-18, 142 yards in relief) awaits if needed. Tight end Bryant Wesco Jr. leads the ACC with six receiving TDs (28 catches, 412 yards, 80% contested-catch rate), while WR Antonio Williams (18 catches, 285 yards, two TDs) and freshman WR TJ Moore (32 catches, 378 yards) stretch defenses.Sophomore RB Adam Randall, now the lead back, has 389 rushing yards and three TDs on 95 carries (4.1 YPC) this season. Against Boston College on Oct. 11, 2025, Randall rushed eight times for 30 yards and caught four passes for a career-high 73 yards with two receiving TDs, becoming the first Clemson RB since Travis Etienne (2019 Fiesta Bowl) to catch two scores in a game. This corrects earlier inaccuracies for his BC performance, aligning with verified stats. Keith Adams Jr., a depth RB, added a 1-yard TD run vs. BC, totaling 120 yards on 28 carries this season.Defensively, Clemson ranks 31st in SP+ (20.0 rating), allowing 105.0 rushing yards (24th) and 217.8 passing yards (64th). Junior LB Barrett Carter (45 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and freshman DT Peter Woods (3.5 TFLs, two sacks, one TD vs. BC) anchor the front, with DE T.J. Parker (eight TFLs, two sacks) resurging. Freshman safety RJ Mickens’ three INTs highlight a +4 turnover differential (12th nationally). Home struggles persist (2-4 at Memorial since last October), but a 23-0 October home record looms large.
| Clemson Key Stats (Through 6 Games) | Value | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense (YPG) | 408.8 | 56th |
| Passing Yards (YPG) | 278.8 | 26th |
| Rushing Yards (YPG) | 130.0 | 98th |
| Points Allowed (PPG) | 17.2 | Top-25 |
| Sacks Per Game | 2.3 | 25th |
| Turnovers Forced | 10 | Top-20 |
| Third-Down Defense | 34.8% | 22nd |
Current Clemson Roster Highlights (Offense/Defense):
- QB: Cade Klubnik (Sr.), Christopher Vizzina (Fr.)
- RB: Adam Randall (So.), Keith Adams Jr. (So.), David Eziomume (Fr.)
- WR: Bryant Wesco Jr. (TE, So.), Antonio Williams (Jr.), TJ Moore (Fr.)
- DL: Peter Woods (Fr.), T.J. Parker (So.), Vic Burley (Fr.)
- LB: Barrett Carter (Jr.), Sammy Brown (Fr.)
- DB: RJ Mickens (Fr.), Avieon Terrell (So.), Khalil Barnes (So.)
SMU: Pony Express Brings Firepower to the UpstateSMU, under Rhett Lashlee, entered as preseason No. 16 after an 8-0 ACC run in 2024. Nonconference road losses to Baylor (24-17) and TCU (28-24) blemish their 4-2 record, but ACC wins over East Texas A&M (42-13), Missouri State (31-7), and Stanford (34-10) keep them 2-0 in league play. Their offense ranks top-15 at 43.2 points per game, blending 277.8 passing yards (27th) with 127.0 rushing (100th, 4.0 YPC) via 78.4 plays per game.Sophomore QB Kevin Jennings (3,245 yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs in 2024) has dazzled, posting 247 yards (22-of-30, 73.3%, two TDs) vs. Stanford and adding 354 rushing yards with five TDs this season. RB Brashard Smith leads with 512 yards (5.2 YPC, five TDs), while Miami transfer RB Chris Johnson Jr. erupted for 96 yards on five carries (87-yard TD) and a 42-yard receiving TD vs. Stanford. WR Romello Brinson (28 catches, 484 yards, three TDs) ranks top-10 in the ACC (80.7 YPG), and TE RJ Maryland (22 catches, 285 yards, four TDs) is a red-zone threat. Jordan Hudson (18 catches, 210 yards) adds depth.SMU’s defense allows 19.4 points per game (top-30), excelling vs. the run (107.3 yards, 27th) and third downs (32.1% allowed, ACC-best), but struggles mightily against the pass (315.8 yards, 135th). Senior DE Cameron Robertson (4.5 sacks, 7.5 TFLs, two forced fumbles), LB Kobe Wilson (52 tackles), and safety Isaiah Nwokobia (three INTs) fuel 10 interceptions (ACC-high) and a 64% red-zone scoring defense (third nationally). Time of possession (26:19, 131st) and seven turnovers in six games expose cracks.
| SMU Key Stats (Through 6 Games) | Value | National Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense (PPG) | 43.2 | Top-15 |
| Passing Yards (YPG) | 277.8 | 27th |
| Rushing Yards (YPG) | 127.0 | 100th |
| Plays Per Game | 78.4 | ACC-High |
| Points Allowed (PPG) | 19.4 | Top-30 |
| Passing Yards Allowed | 315.8 | 135th |
| Third-Down Defense | 32.1% | ACC-1st |
| Time of Possession | 26:19 | 131st |
Current SMU Roster Highlights (Offense/Defense):
- QB: Kevin Jennings (So.), Preston Stone (Jr., backup)
- RB: Brashard Smith (Sr.), Chris Johnson Jr. (Fr.), Camar Wheaton (Jr.)
- WR: Romello Brinson (Sr.), Jordan Hudson (So.), RJ Maryland (TE, Jr.)
- DL: Cameron Robertson (Sr.), Jared Harrison-Hunte (Sr.)
- LB: Kobe Wilson (Sr.), Ahmad Walker (Jr.)
- DB: Isaiah Nwokobia (Jr.), Brandon Crossley (Sr.)
Critical Matchups and Injury Notes
- Passing Precision vs. Porous Secondary: Clemson’s 26th-ranked passing attack (278.8 YPG) targets SMU’s 135th-ranked pass defense (315.8 YPG); Wesco’s six TDs vs. Nwokobia’s three INTs is must-watch.
- Run Defense Duel: Clemson’s 24th-ranked run D (105.0 YPG) faces SMU’s 100th-ranked rush (127.0 YPG); SMU’s 27th-ranked run D (107.3 YPG) tests Randall’s 4.1 YPC.
- Turnover Battle: Clemson’s +4 differential (12th) vs. SMU’s seven giveaways could tilt the scales; Mickens’ nose for picks meets Jennings’ occasional lapses.
- Tempo vs. Control: SMU’s 78.4 plays per game push Clemson’s depth (26th in plays faced, 70.2), but the Tigers’ clock control (31:45 TOP, 22nd) could exploit SMU’s 131st-ranked possession time.
Injury Updates: Clemson’s Klubnik (probable, ankle) practiced fully Thursday; WR Jake Briningstool (questionable, foot) is a game-time call. SMU’s Brinson (probable, hamstring) and LT Logan Parr (questionable, knee) were limited Wednesday but trending upward. X chatter highlights Clemson’s urgency to “fix Death Valley’s aura” (2-4 home record) and SMU’s “road warrior vibe” (9-0 ACC away).This clash pits Clemson’s defensive grit and home-field hunger against SMU’s explosive tempo and playmakers, setting the stage for an ACC classic in front of 81,500 roaring fans.
